Classic Warning Signs in Germany School Shooting

Incident
On Wednesday, Tim Kretschmer, a 17 year old boy, returned to the high school where he'd graduated last year and opened fire, killing nine students and three teachers at his former school in Winnenden, Germany. According to an article at TimesOnline, it now appears that Kretschmer also shot a man, believed to be the gardener, outside of the psychiatric clinic where he's been sent for treatment months earlier. Several media outlets, including the New York Times and the Washington Post, have reported that Kretschmer was being treated for depression last year and had been referred to a clinic in Winnenden, but stopped going for treatment after only a few sessions. After killing the man outside the Winnenden psychiatric clinic immediately after his attack at the Albertville school, Kretschmer then commandeered a car, taking the driver hostage, and shot and killed two other individuals at a car dealership in a nearby town before killing himself. This attack came a day after a highly-publicized rampage shooting spread across two towns in southern Alabama (see "AL Shooting Planned, not Impulsive" below, posted on 03.11.2009).


Analysis
From the information that is emerging about this attack, it appears that Kretschmer showed several classic warning signs that most previous school shooters showed prior to their attacks. In the Safe School Initiative -- the joint U.S. Secret Service/U.S. Department of Education study of school shootings that my colleagues and I conducted -- we discovered several major findings that were common among most school shooters. So far, news reports about the investigation indicate that Kretschmer's behavior was similar to that of previous school shooters in several key areas. Below are listed some of the major findings of the Safe School Initiative and how Kretschmer's behavior compares:

Safe School Initiative Findings:

School shootings are rarely impulsive. Instead, they are typically thought out and planned in advance.
So far several articles have reported that Kretschmer carried over 250 bullets on him when he entered the school and started his attack. This suggests possible planning for a large-scale attack. It will be worth watching to see if the police investigation yields any more specific information about planning.

School shooters often tell others about their ideas or plans for harm in advance of their attack.
Initial reports indicated that Kretschmer had warned of his attack in a chat room post six hours before his shooting. A teenager from Bavaria reported to his father that he has received a post from a boy in Germany about his plans to go back to his former school carry out an attack. In the post Kretschmer also reportedly said that he was sick of life. More recent reports, however, say that authorities have become concerned about the veracity of the posts and think they may be fake. Even if these posts turn out to be fake, I would not be surprised if the investigation eventually reveals that Kretschmer talked about his intentions with others - or posted them somewhere - in the days and weeks before Wednesday's shooting.

School shooters rarely direct threats to their targets in advance of doing any harm.
In the reports so far, there has been no mention of Kretschmer threatening anyone he targeted prior to his shooting. It is possible that the investigation will reveal that Kretschmer threatened some of this targets before the shooting - but I believe it is more likely that investigators will find communications with OTHER people - rather than any potential targets - about the harm he intended to carry out.

Most school shooters had considered or attempted suicide prior to their attacks. Many had been experiencing desperation or despair.
Several news reports have mentioned that Kretschmer was being treated for depression, and that he had terminated his treatment after only a few sessions. He also killed himself in the course of his attack. In addition, in Kretschmer's alleged the chat room post he was reported as saying that he didn't want to live anymore. Even if it turns out that the post was fake or did not exist, the fact that Kretschmer had been diagnosed with depression is in keeping with most previous school shooters.

Most school shooters had access to and had used weapons prior to their attack.
Kretschmer's father was a member of a local gun club and Kretschmer was reported to have frequented the club for target practice with his father. In addition, Kretschmer's father is reported to have owned at least 15 weapons that he kept at the family's home, nearly all in a locked cabinet. Reports also indicate that the handgun that Kretschmer used in his attack was the one gun that his father kept unlocked in their home.

Many school shooters felt bullied, persecuted, or injured by others prior to their attacks.
From the note that Kretschmer's allegedly posted in the chat room six hours prior to his attack, he indicated that he felt that everyone laughed at him and no one recognized his potential.

As the investigation unfolds, it will be interesting to see if other facts come to light that suggest Kretschmer's situation was like that of previous school shooters. Specifically, it will be worth watching to see if people in Kretschmer's life had been seriously troubled by or concerned about his behavior prior to the shooting. It will also be worth watching to see if Kretschmer communicated with anyone else (besides the chat room post in question) beforehand about his plans for the shooting. Finally, it will be interesting to see if investigators find that any other peers or friends of Kretschmer's were helping Kretschmer with his plans, or were daring him to go through with the attack. In the meantime, our thoughts and prayers are with the victims and their families in Winnenden.